Golden Globes 2024 Predictions: Who’s Going to Win?

In their first year since dissolving the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the Golden Globe Awards are back and eager to assert their position as the first major televised trophy show of awards season, or at least the first televised trophy show hosted by Jo Koy, reportedly one of the only comedians willing to take the gig.

Yeah, the Globes are still in a rebuilding phase, as illustrated by the fact that they will be broadcast on CBS for the first time this year. (NBC, their former home, has opted to show Sunday Night Football instead because more viewers actually watch that.) But awards season obsessives still look to the annual boozy affair for portents of what may (or may not) be ahead at the Oscars. Barbie, Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Poor Things — all potential contenders for big prizes at the Academy Awards — lead the nominations on the film side. And with the strike pushing this year’s Emmy ceremony to January 15, roughly a week after the Globes, the television categories will also feel like foreshadowing, even though voting for the Emmys closed months ago.

Which movies, shows, performers, and filmmakers will win during Sunday’s ceremony? It’s anybody’s best guess, and by anybody’s we mean ours.

Anatomy of a Fall
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
The Zone of Interest

Conventional wisdom holds that Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon are this year’s Oscar heavyweights, and the Globes nominated both everywhere they could. Critics’ groups have been tilting toward Killers, but I suspect that could rebound to Oppenheimer’s benefit with the Globes, which now get the chance to do their two favorite things: put their own stamp on the race while handing their biggest trophy to the presumptive Best Picture frontrunner.

Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon
Colman Domingo – Rustin
Barry Keoghan – Saltburn
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers

Five years ago, Bradley Cooper lost this award to Bohemian Rhapsody’s Rami Malek, who had transformed himself into an iconic musical figure of the 20th century. Now Cooper has his own music biopic, his own transformation, and soon, I suspect, his own Globe. If you can’t beat ’em …

Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla

After a string of critics’-group wins, Lily Gladstone has all the momentum, and with Emma Stone safely tucked away in the other acting category, I don’t think the Globes will pass up the opportunity to offer the Blackfeet actress her podium moment.

Air
American Fiction
Barbie
The Holdovers
May December
Poor Things

Just like the Drama race, this field seems likely to boil down to two major Oscar contenders: Barbie and Poor Things. Both received Picture, Director, and Screenplay love from the Globes, so it could go either way. However, since voters’ taste in this category tends to skew more highbrow than wacky — last year, they rewarded The Banshees of Inisherin over Everything Everywhere All at Once — I predict Poor Things will go home with the trophy.

Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario
Timothée Chalamet, Wonka
Matt Damon, Air
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Joaquin Phoenix, Beau Is Afraid
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

A real choose-your-own-adventure of a category. Paul Giamatti and Jeffrey Wright are the only names that would plausibly crack the Oscar lineup, but as the actors are both repping films the Globes liked but didn’t love, it’s hard to tell who’s got the edge. Of the pair, Giamatti is my pick: He’s a former HFPA fave who previously won this trophy for the little-seen Barney’s Version. But watch out for a surprise here.

Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Jennifer Lawrence, No Hard Feelings
Natalie Portman, May December
Alma Pöysti, Fallen Leaves
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things

I suspect the Globes will decide to cement Emma Stone as the other Best Actress front-runner here. However, I wouldn’t count out a Barbie party for Margot Robbie or a left-field win for J. Law, who was once such an HFPA darling that she was able to take this prize for the decidedly non-comedic Joy.

Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Charles Melton, May December
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

If this were the Golden Globes of yore, they’d go with hot new face Charles Melton and send Film Twitter into a tailspin of thirst. A larger voting body means fewer unconventional picks, which should lead instead to the first stage of Robert Downey Jr.’s Oscar coronation.

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Julianne Moore, May December
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Again, the old HFPA might have gotten freaky with it and named Rosamund Pike. (Who, lest we forget, was the Best Actress in a Comedy winner at 2021’s Zoom ceremony.) But Da’Vine Joy Randolph has barely missed during the tastemaker phase of the season, and since the Globes snubbed The Color Purple in a few key categories, I don’t see Danielle Brooks pulling off the upset.

Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Celine Song, Past Lives

Unless Alfonso Cuarón’s in the race, the Globes don’t tend to split Picture and Director. So we’re down to Christopher Nolan or Yorgos Lanthimos here, and of the two technically impressive European auteurs, it feels more like Nolan’s year.

Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Barbie
Tony McNamara, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Celine Song, Past Lives
Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall

Five films received the Holy Trinity of Picture, Director, and Screenplay noms at the Globes. Four of them were our top tier of Best Picture players: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things. The fifth was Past Lives. Such exalted company makes me think the Globes will find a place to reward Celine Song’s film, and a Screenplay win for the quiet indie romance feels like the move.

“Addicted to Romance,” She Came to Me
“Dance the Night,” Barbie
“I’m Just Ken,” Barbie
“Peaches,” The Super Mario Bros. Movie
“Road to Freedom,” Rustin
“What Was I Made For,” Barbie

Sunday night should provide an answer to this race’s lingering question: Do the multiple Barbie songs split the vote and allow something else to sneak through? All three nominated numbers are so irresistible that I’m inclined to say no, and since the Globes often reward something uplifting here, I think “What Was I Made For” is the pick. (Though last year’s “Naatu Naatu” win suggests there may be a path to victory for “I’m Just Ken” as well.)

Jerskin Fendrix, Poor Things
Ludwig Göransson, Oppenheimer
Joe Hisaishi, The Boy and the Heron
Mica Levi, The Zone of Interest
Daniel Pemberton, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Robbie Robertson, Killers of the Flower Moon

The Globes are not afraid to march to their own drum in this category, and there are no bad options this year. But Ludwig Göransson’s Oppenheimer score feels like the most totemic of the bunch. BUM-BAMMM.

The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Suzume
Wish

Across the Spider-Verse and The Boy and the Heron have been splitting the critics’ prizes, and if there were only one of them, we might be talking about a potential dark-horse Best Picture bid. The Globes loved both enough to nominate them in Score, too, so this is as close to a toss-up as you’ll find. Usually, though, this prize goes to a film from a Hollywood studio, which tips it to Across the Spider-Verse for me.

Anatomy of a Fall
Fallen Leaves
Io Capitano
Past Lives
Society of the Snow
The Zone of Interest

The Globes recently eliminated the rule that prevented foreign-language films from being nominated in Drama or Comedy/Musical, and this year three films notched the double-up: Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, and Zone of Interest. Even though the Globes loved Past Lives, it would feel like an awkward winner in this category, so we’re probably looking at one of the two Cannes prize winners. Anatomy of a Fall, which also earned a Screenplay nom, seems to be outpacing the more polarizing Zone of Interest, and the fact that the courtroom drama is ineligible for the Oscar should only increase voters’ drive to reward it here.

Barbie
Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3
John Wick, Chapter 4
Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part 1
Oppenheimer
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

I confess I’m not quite sure what this category is supposed to recognize, but it seems like an award designed to ensure that Barbie will get to take home a major trophy.

1923
The Crown
The Diplomat
The Last of Us
The Morning Show
Succession

This is only the second year since the Globes voting body expanded and the first since the HFPA was dissolved entirely, so it’s challenging to gauge this new and (maybe?) improved body’s voting tendencies, especially on the TV side, where the Globes have tended to be a little less predictable. That said, every time Succession has been nominated in this category, it has won, and it’s hard to imagine its exceptional final season disproving that rule. If any series can pull off an upset, it would be The Last of Us or maaaaybe The Crown? But I don’t see that happening.

Abbott Elementary
Barry
The Bear
Jury Duty
Only Murders in the Building
Ted Lasso

The Golden Globe for best TV comedy has not gone to the same show two years in a row since Glee’s back-to-back wins in 2010 and 2011. Given that, I’m inclined to believe that Abbott Elementary, last year’s victor, won’t triumph a second time. That leaves four shows that have been nominated in this category before without scoring a statuette and one newcomer: Jury Duty. There is a real chance that Jury Duty could win since the Globes often champion newer series. But I am inclined to think voters will opt for the second season of The Bear, a near-perfect piece of television.

All the Light We Cannot See
Beef
Daisy Jones and the Six
Fargo
Fellow Travelers
Lessons in Chemistry

Generally speaking, when it comes to limited series, Globe voters gravitate toward the shiniest object, with winners tending to be the most-talked-about entries in the category. (See The White Lotus, The Queen’s Gambit, Big Little Lies, or The People vs. O.J. Simpson for previous examples.) There are exceptions — two years ago, for instance, Barry Jenkins’s The Underground Railroad deservedly took the top prize even as the series was not discussed enough in the broader culture. But I’m betting the shiny-object theory will hold this year and that the award will go to Netflix’s Beef.

Brian Cox, Succession
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us
Jeremy Strong, Succession
Dominic West, The Crown

Brian Cox has already won a Golden Globe for his portrayal of Logan “Fuck off” Roy on Succession. Jeremy Strong also has one for his work as Kendall “I am the eldest boy” Roy on the HBO drama. Which leaves Kieran Culkin poised to take home his first trophy for bringing Roman “Are you a cunt? Give me a buzz” Roy to life. Sure, it’s possible that Gary Oldman, Dominic West, or, more likely, Pedro Pascal could win this. But after being nominated three times in the Supporting Actor category, then upgrading to lead after delivering an emotionally massive performance in the show’s final season, it seems like good ol’ Romulus, a.k.a. Culkin, will finally win Daddy’s* approval.

(*Daddy in this case means Golden Globe voters.)

Helen Mirren, 1923
Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us
Kerri Russell, The Diplomat
Sarah Snook, Succession
Imelda Staunton, The Crown
Emma Stone, The Curse

If the voters wind up going full Succession, Sarah Snook could, and may, win here. If they want to recognize a young up-and-comer in a breakthrough lead role, it could go to Bella Ramsey. But it’s worth noting that the two other actresses who played Queen Elizabeth II on The Crown — Claire Foy and Olivia Colman — won Globes for their efforts, which is why I think this one’s going to go to Imelda Staunton for her portrait of the royal in her waning days. Remember, a number of Globe voters are journalists who hail from countries that are part of the British Commonwealth and may appreciate Staunton’s accurate performance even if they didn’t love the final episodes.

Bill Hader, Barry
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
Jason Segel, Shrinking
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear

I’m going to rule out Jason Segel, Jason Sudeikis (he already has two Globes for Ted Lasso), and Steve Martin and Martin Short, who never seem to win these things, perhaps because they keep canceling each other out. (Wouldn’t it be fun to watch Short give an acceptance speech, though?) That leaves Bill Hader, who has been nominated four times for his performance as sorta-reforming hitman Barry Berkman on Barry but has never won, and Jeremy Allen White, who won last year for his work as Carmy on The Bear. I truly have no idea how this will shake out, but I’m going with Hader since he’s struck out so far and also because the second season of The Bear felt like more of a chance for the supporting actors to shine.

Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Elle Fanning, The Great
Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building
Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face

As I mentioned above, the second season of The Bear was (slightly) less about Carmy and more about his co-workers, including Sydney, played by Ayo Edebiri. Not only is Edebiri both natural and committed in that performance, she’s also had a breakout year thanks to Bottoms and Theater Camp on the film side. I think she’s got the best shot at winning, and when she does, I will be sprinkling sour-cream-and-onion potato chips on an omelet in her honor.

Matt Bomer, Fellow Travelers
Sam Claflin, Daisy Jones and the Six
Jon Hamm, Fargo
Woody Harrelson, White House Plumbers
David Oyelowo, Lawman: Bass Reeves
Steven Yeun, Beef

The most obvious potential winner here is Steven Yeun, who digs deep and goes darker than usual in Beef. I am 98 percent sure he will win, based on gut feeling and also what everyone else on the internet seems to be predicting. (What, you think there’s science involved in this?) However, I feel compelled to point out that last year, Kevin Costner won a Golden Globe for Yellowstone, which suggests that some voters have warm feelings toward Taylor Sheridan projects (and also, possibly, projects spearheaded by Paramount, which owns CBS, the new home of the Golden Globes). If there’s a surprise upset, this one could go to David Oyelowo.

Riley Keough, Daisy Jones and the Six
Brie Larson, Lessons in Chemistry
Elizabeth Olsen, Love and Death
Juno Temple, Fargo
Rachel Weisz, Dead Ringers
Ali Wong, Beef

Rachel Weisz was absolutely dazzling in Dead Ringers. Ali Wong, like Steven Yeun, demonstrated depths that we have not fully seen from her before. Either seems like a very probable winner. But at least once in the TV categories, the Globes usually does something unexpected. Last year, that meant giving a Globe to Paul Walter Hauser for his performance in Black Bird. In 2020 it was Josh O’Connor’s Globe for The Crown, and the year before that, it was Russell Crowe’s for The Loudest Voice, a Showtime drama that I am still convinced no one actually watched in full. Which is why my eyes keep gravitating toward Riley Keough in Daisy Jones and the Six. Her performance is strong and charismatic, though not as elastic as Wong’s or Weisz’s. But one has to consider context here as well. If Keough wins, she’ll deliver an acceptance speech about playing a musician almost exactly a year after losing her mother, Lisa Marie Presley, also a musician and the daughter of Elvis Presley. In theory, voters should only be thinking about the caliber of these performances when they vote. But it’s naïve to believe that at least some are not also considering what will play best on the Globes broadcast. Elvis’s granddaughter winning an award a year after Austin Butler won one for playing her grandfather? That would be a great awards-show moment.

Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
Matthew MacFadyen, Succession
James Marsden, Jury Duty
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
Alan Ruck, Succession
Alexander Skarsgård, Succession

In case you’re wondering, the separate supporting categories in the limited-series genre were eliminated this year and rolled into the overall “supporting performance on television” races, a move that resulted in … no supporting actors from any limited series being nominated. (Apologies to the ensembles of Fargo, Beef, and Daisy Jones, I guess!) The Supporting Actor group is loaded with first-time nominees, specifically Matthew MacFadyen, James Marsden, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, and Alan Ruck. There is definitely a world where I can see Marsden winning, especially since he gives the most purely comedic (and meta) performance in the bunch. But how can you not give it to MacFadyen, the man who won Succession? You can’t, which is why the voters will (I think) reward Tommy Wambsgans.

J. Smith Cameron, Succession
Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown
Abby Elliott, The Bear
Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets
Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building
Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso

Meryl Streep has been nominated for 34 Golden Globes and won nine times, mostly on the film side. There are many ways to interpret that data, and one of them is this: Streep has lost 25 times. I mean, technically she has! I kinda don’t see her adding to her victory pile with Only Murders, as good as she was in the role. This category most likely comes down to three actresses who have never won and were appearing in the final seasons of their respective series: J. Smith Cameron, Elizabeth Debicki, and Hannah Waddingham. The outcome is going to depend significantly on how much love the voters opt to shower on Succession or The Crown and whether or not they want to toss at least one award to Ted Lasso. I am betting they lean toward Waddingham, because her performance was one of the best parts of that series and I also just touched a “Believe” sign or some shit.

Ricky Gervais: Armageddon
Trevor Noah: Where Was I
Chris Rock: Selective Outrage
Amy Schumer: Emergency Contact
Sarah Silverman: Someone You Love
Wanda Sykes: I’m an Entertainer

This is a brand-new category, which means there is zero predictive history to rely on here. That said, I feel like the Globes voters will select Chris Rock, at least in part because he talks about getting slapped at that Other Awards Show. Never forget that the Golden Globes exist for two reasons: to get movie and TV stars drunk on live television and to justify their existence as a television show so they can continue to get movie and TV stars drunk on live television. Yeah, they’re gonna want Chris to say a few words.